The Conservatives continued to record significant poll leads over Labour almost consistently throughout 2020 and 2021, with only a brief interlude in autumn 2020 where this narrowed. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. 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We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. Six reasons Labour might not win the next election alone, Urban Flight A real threat to many formerly safe seats in the Blue Wall. Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. View our Privacy PolicyandTerms & Conditions, TheLondonEconomic.com Open, accessible and accountable news, sport, culture and lifestyle. Last updated Nov 16, 2022 View all Trackers (4) Support for creation of a new English Parliament along the lines of the existing Scottish Parliament politics Surveys Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. The Tories would be on seven MPs up one despite all the turmoil of the past 12 months with the Lib Dems also up one on five, according to the seat predictor from Electoral Calculus. This time 12 months ago, the Conservative party was still just ahead in the polls. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list,. Holy oil prepared to anoint King Charles III during coronation during ceremony in Jerusalem. The YouGov poll released on Monday night put the lead for the no campaign at six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points early last month. This page will bring you the latest breaking headlines, and updates automatically and continuously 24/7. Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. In the case of Wales, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the most recent YouGov poll produced on 27 February. Majority of people support NEU teacher strikes, YouGov poll finds Dorset Live 14:59 6-Feb-23. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. YouGov poll, reported in the Telegraph on 31 Jan 2023Full results, The Times poll, conducted by YouGov, reported on 21 Jan 2023, Wings Over Scotland/The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 19 Dec 2022: Why do SNP voters hate women?, The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 17 Dec 2022, The Times poll, reported on 16 Oct 2022Full results. While polls should always be treated with caution, Labour supporters have celebrated the latest figures. Question asked. In the latter part of 2020, the Conservatives lead in the polls diminished significantly. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Between January 2015 and December 2022 over 230 polls have been published and recorded in the main table. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. The Boundary Commission is currently in the midst of a review designed to better equalise constituency sizes. LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Support for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party has slipped behind the opposition Labour party to its lowest level since the 2019 national. All Rights Reserved. should not be a referendum on Scottish Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Scottish independence, tracking changes over time. It's Andrew's Previews for. Please try different keywords. We will not share your email address with any third parties. independence? Another. But we can't do it without you. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. The Conservative party regained a minor amount of ground in the first 3 weeks of the Rishi Sunak premiership, but Mr Sunaks honeymoon period has been short lived, and those advances stalled soon after Jeremy Hunts financial statement. Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action, Nicola Sturgeons SNP government blocking Scotlands 'success in the UK', says Sir Keir Starmer, Met Police in London urged to investigate the SNP's Covid 'crime of the century', Campaigners believe longstanding failures in the Scottish healthcare regulation were exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, leading to up to 30,000 avoidable deaths and they won't stop until they get justice, Prince Harry feels 'stuck' with Meghan Markle in America as biographer claims he wants them to come home, The Duke and Duchess of Sussex quit the UK in 2020 but observers reckon the move has not worked out for them, Tax authorities 'destroyed' Rangers, former chairman Charles Green tells court, Green also spoke of his dislike for Craig Whyte, telling the court 'if we had a collection in this court we would have more money from that than Craig Whyte would ever have', Prince Harry set to lose Dukedom as King's eviction is block on him 'deputising', More rejection for Prince Harry as experts reckon his UK eviction is a tactical move to stop him from being able to step into Royal roles in the event of King Charles's absence, Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell's joint bank account is key to resignation, says Private Eye, The outgoing SNP leader and her chief executive husband are urged to answer the question about whether or not they have a joint bank account, as the magazine says Operation Branchform was the 'game-changer' behind shock resignation, Teaching strikes reprieve in doubt as union blasts 14% pay rise as 'paltry'. Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. In the first three weeks of her premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives extended to 11%. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. tax was introduced a year early in Scotland by the UK government. This page was last edited on 4 March 2023, at 10:18. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. We don't have an account for this email address. Support for Welsh independence has fallen back to its lowest level in three years, a St David's Day poll for Wales carried out by pollsters YouGov has shown. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Worst-case scenario could see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter scientists, Watch: Gary Neville slams PM as he rages over brutal UC cut, French border guards warn this will be what it is like after Brexit. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Voting Intention. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Prince Harry's popularity in the UK has decreased by 35 percentage points over the past four years, a new survey by IPSOS has found. ", Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or Support for Scottish independence has grown steadily over the last forty five years. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Voting Intention. If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. ), Lord Ashcroft poll, reported in Holyrood on 13 Feb 2023Full results. However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. Yahoo News / YouGov polls . Latest YouGov poll suggests many voters in Scotland have dismissed warnings about the economic impacts of a yes vote YouGov's opinion poll for the Sunday Times suggests the yes. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. In response to the Redfield and Wilton poll, Scots Labour peer Lord Foulkes tweeted: "SNP on the slide. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Conservative support then fell by a further 6% as the first Downing Street party allegations emerged. Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. Any variations that might have an impact on the poll result, such as excluding 16- to 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. A majority of Scots back same-sex marriage, according to the most detailed survey of public opinion since MSPs began moves to change the law. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polling returns, including the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, the Covid pandemic in Scotland and party leadership changes. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Get the day's top headlines delivered to your inbox. That opinion poll lead so far appears unaffected by Nicola Sturgeons announcement that she was standing down as first minister in mid February 2023. Labour would be nipping at their heels with 22 Scottish MPs, up from just one currently. Scotlands Political Landscape After Nicola Sturgeon? A YouGov poll shows 56% of Scots support the . Last updated Feb 21, 2023 View all Surveys (8) [1] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Britain Elects. The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain. Much of the YouGov poll's Labour lead was buoyed by 17% of people who had previously voted for Boris Johnson saying they would now vote for Labour - double that of a week ago. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. Founded by Ben Walker and Lily Jayne Summers. Exclusive: Scottish Labour blasted the Scottish Government for their inaction in trying to get rid of dangerous Grenfell-styling cladding on buildings across the country. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. President has no right to express opinion on legality of LG polls: AKD Sri Lanka Daily Mirror 02:32 25-Feb-23. Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls suggest it will be a knife-edge after a recent drop in SNP's approval rating and a small rise in Labour and Conservatives. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? Our current polling average is based on polls by Savanta ComRes (fieldwork completed May 4). July 9, 2020 YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal fur and do support a #FurFreeBritain; Government urged to end UK fur sales RT-Images/iStock.com Red fox lying in leaves LONDONBritish citizens overwhelmingly agree that the time has come for Britain to be fur-free. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? However amidst mounting pressure on Boris Johnsons position in late June, and the drawn out nature of his resignation in early July, the Labour party once extended their lead over the Conservatives in the polls. The headline data used in calculating these averages has been drawn from that laid out in the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Opinium, Survation, SavantaComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Techne, Delta Poll,and Ipsos Mori. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. Please click 'Create Account and Subscribe' to create a new account and subscribe to our email alerts. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. and given the options of "Yes" and "No". In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. In the early part of 2023, Labour had started to increase its polling lead again and was once again approaching 50% in the polls. This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. conservative party Labour Party Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. YouGov, Panelbase, reported in the Times, 27 Nov 2021, Scot Goes Pop, Panelbase, reported in the Times, 31 Oct 2021Report I Data, For Women Scotland, 2023.For Women Scotland is a not-for-profit company limited by guarantee. Journalism in Britain is under threat. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. , in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. YouGov poll: The mental health and wellbeing of employees are not supported by legal firms Law News 15:47 3-Feb-23. Although it is only a relatively small Scottish sample (148 people out of 1702 polled in total across the UK), the results would see 23 Nats lose their seats to leave them with 25 MPs. Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. And 50% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 would now vote for Labour, up from 27% at the start of this week. The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic. In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. About; Social . Charles and Camilla break silence after Frogxit fall out with business-as-usual engagements, The Palace has not yet commented on the move to remove Prince Harry and Meghan from Frogmore - instead sending out a release about forthcoming official engagements, No prominent backers appear for Ash Regan despite claims endorsements would arrive this week. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Yougov (January 26) which placed the Yes side on 46.5% and the No side on 53.5%, post adjusting for undecided voters. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Yes at 46 per cent when Nicola Sturgeon quit with Labour support rising, poll finds. In the case of Scotland, Politics.co.uk drew on the most recent Scottish voting intention polling data from Survation on 18 February. Following a lull in political activity over Christmas 2021, the Conservatives appeared to be recovering in early 2022, clawing back approximately half of the poll losses that they had seen before the festive period. We will not share your email address with any third parties. The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Polling aggregator Stats for Lefties has calculated that, if this poll were repeated in a general election, the Tories would win just 17 seats behind Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems. Most polling companies listed here are members of the . 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